Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Maryland's 3rd District?
2.6 pts (24h)PolitiqueMonthlyPolitique américaineÉlectionÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 202613j
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleDemocratic Party — Sarah Elfreth 97%+2.6ptEn tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
1
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+2.6 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète6 oct. 26, 05:56 UTC4 nov. 26, 12:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Sarah Elfreth win the Maryland 3rd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsMaryland's 3rd District margin of victory
KalshiRègles
This market resolves to the party of the winner of the 2026 election for U.S. Representative for Maryland's 3rd congressional district — the term beginning January 3, 2027.
- Which round counts: the November 3, 2026 general election (plurality winner).
- Primaries do not count.
- Party rule: the winner's party is the party on whose line or with whose party designation they appear on the official general-election ballot.
- A candidate nominated by Democratic Party or Republican Party who also appears on other parties' lines (fusion) counts as that party's candidate.
- Candidates who are independent, have no party preference, or belong to any other party resolve to "the named outcome", even if they say they would caucus with a major party.
