Which of Nate Silver’s four scenarios for the next era of American politics will come true?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection4a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
#4 – “Off the Charts” 28%En tête parmi 5 options
#4 – “Off the Charts” 28%Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète23 janv. 25, 07:07 UTC21 janv. 31, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
In Nate Silver’s blog post on Jan 22, 2025, he outlines four possible scenarios for the next era of American politics:
- “Conservative Golden Age” – conservative ideology continues to dominate, including a Republican winning the White House in 2028
- “The New Liberal Era is Still Alive, Baby!” – liberal ideology dominates again like it did before Trump, including a Democrat winning the White House in 2028
- “Stalemate” – the conservative and liberal ideologies together remain dominant, but neither one consistently dominates over the other – control of the White House is expected to continue flipping back and forth, including a Democrat winning the White House in 2028
- “Off the Charts” – significantly new ideologies dominate instead of the conservative and liberal ideologies as they have generally existed for the past 100 years
- If Nate Silver states which scenario (if any) he believes is actually occurring, then this question will resolve to that scenario.
