Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleFlorida 88.8%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète18 mai 26, 14:42 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a US state cease to recognize same-sex marriages by 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the Roman Catholic Church allow priests to perform same-sex marriages before 2075?
Manifold MarketsKentucky aging Bourbon-barrel inventory as of January 1, 2026
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- An option in this market will resolve YES if, at 23:59:00 local time on 1 January 2028, same-sex marriages have legal recognition in the stated jurisdiction.
- Each option will otherwise resolve NO.
- Clarifications
- For the purpose of this market, a jurisdiction may recognise same-sex marriages without necessarily performing them.
- If, for example, a jurisdiction only recognises same-sex marriages performed extraterritorially, this is sufficient to resolve YES.
Marchés ouverts
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt30.3%
- <40-5.5pt12.1%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 25,3 k €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Volume total
- 6,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 5,8 k €
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Hurricane95%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Tariff86%
+13 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 6,1 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Volume total
- 18,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 989,4 €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 15,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 952,4 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Volume total
- 136,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 247 €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Florida à 89% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2028? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria