Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 09:52 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Not by 2030 60.6%En tête parmi 7 options
Not by 2030 60.6%Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+0.6 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète5 janv. 25, 08:35 UTC1 janv. 31, 12:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Wins Nobel Prize in Literature before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Alan Moore ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?
Manifold MarketsWill Haruki Murakami ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM have been used as part of the composition a work which wins the Nobel Prize in Literature by 2040?
Manifold MarketsNational Book Award for Translated Literature
KalshiNational Book Award for Young People's Literature
KalshiRègles
Mircea Cărtărescu is a renowned Romanian novelist, poet, and essayist who has been consistently mentioned as a top contender for the Nobel Prize in Literature.
- He was among the favorites for the 2024 prize and continues to be considered a strong candidate for future awards.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to the year in which Mircea Cărtărescu wins the Nobel Prize in Literature.
- If he wins the prize in any year from 2025 through 2030, the corresponding year option will resolve as YES, with all other options resolving as NO.
- If he does not win the prize by the end of 2030, "the named outcome" will resolve as YES, with all other options resolving as NO.
