Prévision communautaire actuelle
Other 40%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-10.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète12 oct. 25, 16:57 UTC1 sept. 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What seat shares will the parties get at the next UK general election?
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KalshiRègles
This market resolves to the four largest parties by number of seats in the UK House of Commons following the next UK general election after the July 2024 election.
- Answers should have the form A > B > C > D, where A is the party with the most seats, B is the party with the second-highest number of seats, and so on.
- Note that this may not correspond to the four parties with the most votes, due to the UK's first-past-the-post electoral system.
- If there is a tie, this market will resolve to PROB, with all answers that are a valid order resolving equally (e.g. if the two largest parties A and B have the same number of seats, and parties C and D are the next largest and also tied, then four answers will resolve to 25% each, i.e. A > B > C > D; B > A > C > D; A > B > D > C; and B > A > D > C).
- Here are the top-four parties by seats for every election since 2000:
- 2024 election: Labour > Conservative > Lib Dem > SNP
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What will be the four largest parties at the next UK general election in order (by number of seats)? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Other à 40% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand What will be the four largest parties at the next UK general election in order (by number of seats)? sera-t-il résolu ?
- What will be the four largest parties at the next UK general election in order (by number of seats)? doit être résolu le 1 septembre 2029.
- Comment What will be the four largest parties at the next UK general election in order (by number of seats)? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves to the four largest parties by number of seats in the UK House of Commons following the next UK general election after the July 2024 election.