Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 12:15 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Labour > Conservative > Reform > Lib Dem 24.7%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+10.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète12 oct. 25, 16:57 UTC1 sept. 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What seat shares will the parties get at the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsHow many parties will win more than 30 seats in the next UK General Election?
Manifold MarketsWhat vote shares will the parties get at the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsIf Labour wins the 2024 UK general election, what will average GDP/capita (PPP) growth over the next four years be?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the next UK general election?
KalshiWill Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?
KalshiRègles
This market resolves to the four largest parties by number of seats in the UK House of Commons following the next UK general election after the July 2024 election.
- Answers should have the form A > B > C > D, where A is the party with the most seats, B is the party with the second-highest number of seats, and so on.
- Note that this may not correspond to the four parties with the most votes, due to the UK's first-past-the-post electoral system.
- If there is a tie, this market will resolve to PROB, with all answers that are a valid order resolving equally (e.g. if the two largest parties A and B have the same number of seats, and parties C and D are the next largest and also tied, then four answers will resolve to 25% each, i.e. A > B > C > D; B > A > C > D; A > B > D > C; and B > A > D > C).
- Here are the top-four parties by seats for every election since 2000:
- 2024 election: Labour > Conservative > Lib Dem > SNP
