What proportion of John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older will identify as LGBTQ+?
One-OffSociété et cultureScienceManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 75.4%
Prévisionnistes
49
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète18 juin 22, 13:58 UTC2 janv. 00, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Conditional on more than 1,000 persons conceived through cloning from John von Neumann's genome reaching age 20 or older by 2100, this question resolves PROB, where PROB is the proportion of persons conceived through cloning from John von Neumann age 20 or older who, in a survey, identify as LGBTQ+.
- This survey will be conducted as soon as possible once there are more than 1,000 such persons, and will aim to contact all such persons (though some amount of nonresponse is inevitable).
