Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 93%
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard19 oct. 23, 15:51 UTC2 janv. 00, 02:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves at close date to YES if the mainstream belief among US citizens is that 9/11 was an inside job, at least partially planned and executed by high officers inside the US government.
- If it continues to be a fringe conspiracy theory, resolves to NO.
- Whoever resolves this market should take these into account:
- - Polls that are not obviously biased crossing the 50% threshold - Official statements from the government - Mainstream media, books, Wikipedia if that exists, citing inside-job as the most likely theory - General perceived sentiment
- These are all proxies for "if we average the subjective belief of all US citizens, P(inside job) > 50%"
