Venezuelan leader dies in us prison by 2030?
PolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsGéopolitiqueLatin AmericaCrime & Justice3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 76.2%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète5 avr. 26, 01:39 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Xi Jinping visit the US again before he dies?
Manifold MarketsVenezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve by which date?
PolymarketWill Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?
PolymarketWill former Venezuelan president Nicolaus Maduro come back to power in 2026
Manifold MarketsVenezuelan Primera División: 2026 Winner
PolymarketWhich companies will sign a Venezuelan oil agreement?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro dies while in the custody of the United States government (e.g., in a federal detention center, prison, or during transport) on or before April 5, 2027.
- The market will resolve to "No" if he is still alive upon his release from U.S. custody or if he remains alive in custody after that date.
- Resolution will be based on consensus reporting from major international and U.S. news outlets (e.g., The Associated Press, Reuters, BBC, The New York Times).
- Official statements from the U.S. Bureau of Prisons or the U.S. Department of Justice will be considered primary evidence.
- Nicolás Maduro, the former president of Venezuela, is currently being held at the Metropolitan Detention Center (MDC) in Brooklyn, New York.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Venezuelan leader dies in us prison by 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 76% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Venezuelan leader dies in us prison by 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Venezuelan leader dies in us prison by 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Venezuelan leader dies in us prison by 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria