Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 84.8%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 minutes
30 mars 25, 22:38 UTC20 janv. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This question resolves as Yes if, before January 20, 2029, the United States recognizes the Republic of China (hereafter Taiwan) as a de jure sovereign state.
- This considered to have happened if at least one of the following occurs:
- The US President issues a statement that the US formally recognizes Taiwan as a sovereign and/or independent state.
- For example, a statement similar to President Barack Obama's statement of July 9, 2011 recognizing the Republic of South Sudan or President Joe Biden's statement of September 25, 2023 recognizing Niue would count.
- The US appoints an ambassador to Taiwan and/or accepts an ambassador from Taiwan.
- The head of mission must be formally credentialed as an ambassador per the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations (pdf), not a "liaison officer," "chargé d'affaires," or other lower level or non-official diplomatic ranking.
