US cabinet member exposed as Russian agent by 2040?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineRussie / Ukraine13a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 78.7%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète26 nov. 25, 14:37 UTC31 déc. 39, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that at least one U.S. cabinet‑level official is or was acting as an undisclosed agent of the Russian government, and that this fact is credibly established before January 1st 2040.
- For the purposes of this market:
- “U.S. cabinet‑level official” means a person serving as:
- A Senate‑confirmed head of an executive department (e.g., Secretary of State, Defense, Army, etc.), or
- Any other official formally granted cabinet rank by the President at the time of the relevant conduct.
- “Strong evidence” requires at least one of the following:
