Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 90.3%
Prévisionnistes
47
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète8 janv. 25, 12:14 UTC2 févr. 29, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the position of Prime Minister of Hungary have a term limit before April 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a term limit be placed on the US House before 2030?
Manifold MarketsTerm limit for US Supreme Court justices enacted in 2026?
FutuurUkraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
PolymarketWill both the House and Senate pass a resolution to limit military action in Iran?
Manifold MarketsWill the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This is about whether Trump succeeds in breaking the two term presidential term limit, either by being a candidate in 2028, or not giving up power after the 2024 term is up
- NOT breaking the limit looks like: two or more candidates, not including Trump, run in 2028 and then in 2029 the winner is in power and Trump leaves the White House.
- Or Trump leaves office early for any reason such as health, political loss or prosecution or flight.
- Even if he is overseas claiming to be the rightful president, if he's gone and not in control of the levers of power then NO
- If Trump tries a bunch of YES like things but doesn't succeed and both the election happens as usual and Trump loses power at inauguration, then this can still NO.
- Its about whether he succeeds at going against the traditional two term limit.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
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- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
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POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Trump breaks the two term limit ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 90% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Trump breaks the two term limit sera-t-il résolu ?
- Trump breaks the two term limit doit être résolu le 2 février 2029.
- Comment Trump breaks the two term limit est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This is about whether Trump succeeds in breaking the two term presidential term limit, either by being a candidate in 2028, or not giving up power after the 2024 term is up