Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 73.3%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 23 heures
Obsolète26 juin 26, 18:07 UTC28 juin 31, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Elon Musk be worth more than 2 Trillion Dollars before 2027?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Manifold MarketsCombined IPO market cap of Anthropic + OpenAI + SpaceX
Manifold MarketsSpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
PolymarketWill Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035?
Manifold MarketsRègles
As part of its astronomically valued IPO, SpaceX justified its valuation by of its ownership of the more speculative xAI / Grok rather than its proven business of putting things into orbit; this market captures the failure of that bet, either via a pivot back to rocketry or the collapse of the company.
- This market resolves YES if SpaceX has an (announced or de facto) a pivot away from its own AI model, spins off its AI business, substantially collapses, or is acquired by a company that does not pursue xAI / Grok.
- This market resolves NO in five years if none of those happen -- principally if SpaceX or its successor entity has more of its revenue or capital in its own-model AI business than in rocketry, starlink, or social media, or other lines of business that aren't own-model AI.
- The hypothetical vast orbiting ring of datacenters will count as xAI if they are training SpaceX-owned models, and not if they are doing something else (training a different model, mining crypto, running Roblox servers, whatever).
- While this market has vague and subjective elements, particularly as market structures and categories may be very different in five years, it will probably be pretty clear before market close if it comes up YES; as such (1) the market may YES early but probably will not NO early, and (2) I will not trade on this market.
