Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle≥$1T 100%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète22 avr. 26, 03:49 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
SpaceX highest valuation by end of March 2027
Manifold MarketsAnthropic highest valuation by end of December 2026
Manifold MarketsOpenAI highest valuation by end of December 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill Kraken's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for SpaceX credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-12-31.
- Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing.
- Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
- Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-12-31 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
- ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
- Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ).
Marchés ouverts
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-3.0pt80.2%
- Yes+3.0pt19.8%
- Volume total
- 13 M €
- Volume 24h
- 419,3 k €
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028+1.0pt43%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-3.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-3.0pt31%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 202798%
- Before Apr 1, 202795%
- Before Jan 1, 202792%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 16,5 k €
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt65%
- Before May 1, 2027+4.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 202750%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 894,3 k €
KALSHIWho will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Paramount+1.0pt77.1%
- None before July 2027+2.0pt20%
- Netflix2.9%
- Volume total
- 3,7 M €
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Clavicular sentenced to prison?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
- SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by which date?
- Ohio State vs Texas
- When will Anduril officially announce an IPO?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour SpaceX highest valuation by end of December 2026 ?
- Manifold Markets cote ≥$1T à 100% au 11 septembre 2026.
- Quand SpaceX highest valuation by end of December 2026 sera-t-il résolu ?
- SpaceX highest valuation by end of December 2026 doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment SpaceX highest valuation by end of December 2026 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for SpaceX credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-12-31.