Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Natural death (or one appearing as such) 25.5%En tête parmi 10 options
Natural death (or one appearing as such) 25.5%Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète5 déc. 24, 18:11 UTC1 janv. 41, 20:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Vladimir Putin be alive and out of custody for at least 7 days after he ceases to be the president of Russia?
Manifold MarketsHow will Vladimir Putin cease to be President of Russia?
Manifold MarketsIf Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?
Manifold MarketsWill Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
PolymarketWill Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to the primary reason why Vladimir Putin ceases to be the President of Russia.
- If multiple events occur simultaneously or in quick succession (e.g., a the named outcome followed by impeachment), the market will resolve to the initial triggering event.
- Resolution criteria for each option:
- Obviously unnatural death: Clear evidence of assassination, missile strike, or other non-natural causes
- Natural death (or one appearing as such): Death attributed to health issues or age-related causes, or deaths where the cause is unclear/disputed
