Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 66.9%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète3 janv. 26, 06:07 UTC14 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Democrats Outperform their 2018 Midterm Results? [Win more than 235 seats in 2026]
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election
Polymarket2028 Democratic presidential nominee
Kalshi2028 Republican presidential nominee
KalshiRègles
Dan Osborn is running for Senate in Nebraska again in 2026, and is once again expected to make it a relatively close race in a deep red state.
- He is running against a different candidate, Pete Ricketts, this time though. 2026 is also expected to favor the democrats, though Osborn is an independent and has refused the Democratic endorsement.
- The market will resolve to YES if Dan Osborn receives more than the 46.52% of the vote he got in 2024.
- It is NOT based on margin of victory or loss, just voteshare
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 691,8 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,6 M €
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Osborn outperforms his 2024 results? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 67% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Osborn outperforms his 2024 results? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Osborn outperforms his 2024 results? doit être résolu le 14 novembre 2026.
- Comment Osborn outperforms his 2024 results? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Dan Osborn is running for Senate in Nebraska again in 2026, and is once again expected to make it a relatively close race in a deep red state.