Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour On which continent will the next Pope to be born (meaning, as yet unborn) be born? ?

Manifold Markets cote South America à 34.1% au 20 octobre 2026.

On which continent will the next Pope to be born (meaning, as yet unborn) be born?

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South America 34.1%

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multiple choice

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Prévision

Variation 7j

0.0 pts

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 12 heures

Obsolète

3 avr. 24, 18:51 UTC3 avr. 74, 03:59 UTC

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Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

The current pope (Francis) is from Argentina, making him the first pope to be from the named outcome and the first pope from the Southern Hemisphere.

The next several Popes have likely already been born.
In which continent will the first Pope born after 2024-04-03 18:50:00+00 be born?
[image]Respectfully modified from @Bayesian's excellent market: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/on-which-continent-will-the-next-po, in turn respectfully modified from @strutheo's excellent market:
@/strutheo/which-country-will-the-next-pope-fo