Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleJD Vance (@jd-vance-1.bsky.social) 76.7%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète31 déc. 25, 08:53 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Most blocked non-government account on Bluesky at the end of 2026
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Polymarket$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criterion
- This market will resolve to the Bluesky account that is blocked by more Bluesky users than any other Bluesky account at the close date.
- Resolution source
- The resolution of this market will be informed by the data available on clearsky.app.
- Should the resolution source become inactive, it may be substituted with another credible source.
- This market is set to close at 07:00:00 UTC on 1 January 2027.
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 693 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.1%
- Marco Rubio20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 266,9 k €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7 k €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Most blocked account on Bluesky at the end of 2026 ?
- Manifold Markets cote JD Vance (@jd-vance-1.bsky.social) à 77% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Most blocked account on Bluesky at the end of 2026 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Most blocked account on Bluesky at the end of 2026 doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Most blocked account on Bluesky at the end of 2026 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criterion