Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
@jim 74%En tête parmi 4 options
@jim 74%Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète20 juin 25, 18:55 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?
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KalshiWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
PolymarketRoblox hours engaged in Q3
KalshiRègles
This market offers credit default swaps (CDSs) on some of the richest and most influential Manifold users.
- Each answer represents a CDS for a specific borrower or loan.
- A CDS resolves Yes if the borrower is 45 days late on a loan payment due by the end of 2030.
- If the creditor grants an extension or forgives the loan, it will not be considered late.
- “Yes”, you’re predicting that the borrower will default on at least one loan by the end of 2030.
- “No”, you’re taking the (more likely) position that they will not default by then.