Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 17:10 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.4%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète4 juin 26, 04:59 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Bryan Johnson achieve his goal of aging escape velocity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill we reach the longevity escape velocity soon enough to save my cats?
Manifold MarketsWill Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) happen earlier for 30 year olds than for 80 year olds?
Manifold MarketsWill longevity escape velocity happen earlier for palm cockatoos than for hyacinth macaws?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a cure for schizophrenia before 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill we see a free medical research zone in the US established in the next 20 years
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, before January 1, 2030, there is a clear consensus or official declaration in the scientific and medical communities that humans (or a specific human cohort) have achieved longevity escape velocity (LEV) (also known as "actuarial escape velocity").
- To resolve YES, at least one of the following conditions must be met before the cutoff date:
- Scientific Publication: A major, peer-reviewed scientific journal (such as Nature, Science, Cell, or Nature Aging) publishes a study or review concluding that a newly developed medical therapy (or suite of therapies) has successfully achieved longevity escape velocity for humans—defined as extending remaining life expectancy by more than one year for every calendar year that passes.
- Global Health Body Recognition: A major health organization (such as the World Health Organization) or regulatory body (such as the US FDA) officially approves or recognizes a class of rejuvenation therapies with the explicit statement that they enable longevity escape velocity in humans.
- Expert Consensus: A reputable, large-scale survey of biogerontologists or a recognized forecasting platform (such as Metaculus) officially resolves a corresponding question establishing that LEV has been achieved for humans.
