Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Other 58%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
40
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+2.8 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète8 janv. 24, 12:53 UTC31 déc. 34, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
CXMT starts mass production of HBM3 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla start selling a vehicle using a new "AI 5" computer by the end of Q3 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Tesla start delivering cars with their AI5 computer onboard?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRègles
Resolution Clarifications:
- Product rename does not change the outcome, i.e. the bot's name does not need to be "Optimus" for a positive resolution of a specific year
- "Other" = Cancellation of the Optimus Program, Insolvency, Significant Change of Design (Humanoid -> 4-legged does not count, humanoid -> 6DoF Arm counts as "Other")
- Mass production indicators:
- first deliveries
- explicit communication of mass production start
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,250 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $75,250 or above98%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 541,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 536,7 k €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+18.0pt37.1%
- 180-199+10.0pt36.2%
- 200-219-10.0pt12.4%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,2 M €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+39.3pt96%
- 65-89-29.7pt4%
- <40-24.4pt0%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+3.0pt71.8%
- Before March 202717.3%
- Before February 2027-1.0pt6.4%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic89.9%
- OpenAI-1.5pt8.1%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Foldable iPhone Announced Price?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- Where will it rain on Sep 9, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Next James Bond actor?
- BNB price range on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot ?
- Manifold Markets cote Other à 58% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot sera-t-il résolu ?
- In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2034.
- Comment In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution Clarifications: