If there is a second election in Israel, will the Arab parties do better or worse?
0.1 pts (24h)PolitiqueOne-OffÉlectionMoyen-Orient1mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleGovernment forms without a second election 56.4%+0.1ptEn tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+6.4 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète29 oct. 26, 13:43 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
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Manifold MarketsRègles
The recent Knesset election in Israel resulted in no coalition achieving a majority of seats.
- Will a government manage to form or will there be a second election? If there is another election, will the Arab parties manage to repeat their impressive performance in the first election?
- If a Prime Minister is sworn in, this market resolves to "the named outcome" even if that government only lasts a very short amount of time and another election ends up happening.
- I think the current figure of 19 seats for the Arab parties is still provisional as a few votes are still to be counted.
- In the unlikely event this changes, this market resolves according to the "19 or more/fewer than 19 seats" criteria, not the actual number of seats.
- By "Arab parties" I mean Joint List and United Arab List (Ra'am).
