Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour If the Netherlands has a referendum on leaving the EU, will it favor leaving? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 89.1% au 24 octobre 2026.

If the Netherlands has a referendum on leaving the EU, will it favor leaving?

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 89.1%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 1 heure

En retard

23 nov. 23, 01:14 UTC29 nov. 27, 07:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

One of Geert Wilder's desires if he becomes PM is a referendum on the Netherlands' EU membership.

Wilders’ election program includes calls for a referendum on the Netherlands leaving the European Union, a total halt to accepting asylum-seekers and migrant pushbacks at Dutch borders.
Resolves N/A if such a referendum does not happen before 2027.
Resolves YES if over 50% of the popular vote votes for leaving the EU (even if a different threshold is chosen or aggregation is done at some district level).
Resolves NO if less than 50% favor leaving.
If it's literally exactly equal to the vote, I'll resolve to 50%.