Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 30 oct. 2026, 22:40 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Adam Back 34.7%En tête parmi 10 options
Adam Back 34.7%Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be revealed before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?
Manifold MarketsSatoshi's identity be proven by which date?
PolymarketWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
If Satoshi is definitively proven to be one of the people listed, that person will resolve yes.
- Otherwise, that person will resolve no.
- If Satoshi is revealed to be the named outcome, that option will resolve yes, and all the others - even if those others were part of the group - will resolve no.
- If Satoshi got occasional help, or occasionally gave another person account access, that will not be sufficient for other to resolve to yes.
- However, constant writing code together and constant and continuous sharing of account credentials will count.
