Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 14:18 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleJon Ossoff 83.6%En tête parmi 14 options
Prévisionnistes
46
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète17 mars 25, 01:16 UTC31 déc. 28, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Taylor Swift endorse the Democratic candidate again in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Hasan Piker endorse the Democratic candidate in the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill the 2028 Democratic candidate lose any state Kamala Harris won?
Manifold MarketsBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketSerbia Parliamentary Election Winner
PolymarketRègles
A candidate is considered "nominated" if they are officially selected as the Democratic Party’s nominee at the 2028 Democratic National Convention.
- If no convention takes place, the nominee is the candidate listed on enough state ballots as the Democratic nominee to win an electoral majority.
- The market resolves as N/A for all candidates not nominated.
- A candidate is considered "elected" if they win the 2028 U.S. presidential election and secure enough electoral votes to become president, with the resolution based on official results from a reliable source such as the Associated Press, the Federal Election Commission, or the final vote count certified by Congress.
- If a nominated candidate drops out, is disqualified, or otherwise does not participate in the general election, the market resolves as NO for that candidate.
- If the nominee wins the election but does not take office, the market still resolves as YES.
