Si Donald Trump gagne en 2024, une guerre entre la Chine et les États-Unis aura-t-elle eu lieu avant la fin de son mandat en 2025 ?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionGéopolitiqueChine2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 94.8%
Prévisionnistes
60
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 minutes
10 déc. 23, 12:03 UTC1 févr. 29, 22:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
War as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program is "A state-based conflict or dyad which reaches at least 1000 battle-related deaths in a specific calendar year"
- This will resolve YES for any war in which China and the USA are directly and kinetically involved on opposing sides.
- "Wins in 2024" refers to the 2024 presidential election.
- If Trump loses, this market will be refunded.
- Sister market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Symmetry/if-joe-biden-wins-in-2024-will-a-wa)
