Conditional on the next US President being Republican, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionGéopolitiqueChine2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 77%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète27 nov. 23, 18:45 UTC21 janv. 29, 04:59 UTC
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Also conditional on no invasion being launched before the next presidential term begins (in January 2025); I will resolve N/A if an invasion occurs before that.
- I will resolve N/A if the next US President is not from the Republican party.
- The next presidential term is 20 Jan 2025 - 20 Jan 2029.
- Sister question:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/galaga/conditional-on-the-next-us-presiden-950953ec17c9)Resolves based on the below market, but using the above time frame.
- https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas?r=Z2FsYWdh