Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 53%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète3 oct. 25, 03:23 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
On what days will I be productive in September?
Manifold MarketsWill I remain in Montreal past September?
Manifold MarketsOn what days will I be productive?
Manifold MarketsWhat will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?
KalshiWill the Kennedy Center be demolished in 2026?
KalshiNew River Gorge recreation visits in 2026
KalshiRègles
I live in Toronto right now but I might move to Montreal in 2026.
- Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if I spend at least 60 nights sleeping in Montreal between Jan 1, 2026 00:00 ET and Dec 31, 2026 23:59 ET. “Montreal” means any municipality on the Island of Montreal (e.g., Ville de Montréal, Westmount, Côte‑Saint‑Luc, etc.).
- Nights need not be consecutive.
- A “night” counts if I go to sleep in Montreal and wake up there (travel days count based on where I sleep).
- Resolves to YES once the 60th night is reached; otherwise resolves NO if there is no way it could resolve YES (even if I spent every future night of the year in Montreal).
Marchés ouverts
Society & CultureKALSHIWhat will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?
- Above 4.1 million94%
- Above 4.2 million91%
- Above 4.3 million-2.0pt59%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 40 k €
- Volume 24h
- 3,2 k €
KALSHIWill the Kennedy Center be demolished in 2026?
- No94%
- Yes-3.0pt6%
- Volume total
- 9,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 k €
KALSHIMaine lobster landings in 2026
- Above 55 million pounds94%
- Above 65 million pounds84%
- Above 70 million pounds66%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 16 k €
- Volume 24h
- 512,8 €
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No-2.0pt73%
- Yes+2.0pt27%
- Volume total
- 21,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 324,3 €
KALSHIUS test scores in Math in 2026?
- Significant decrease+19.0pt61.3%
- No significant difference30.2%
- Significant increase-9.9pt8.5%
- Volume total
- 51,1 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHINew River Gorge recreation visits in 2026
- Above 1.7 million96%
- Above 1.8 million92%
- Above 1.9 million+1.0pt90%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 27,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Will Harvard University rank first overall in 2027?
- Will Glacier National Park set a visitation record in 2026?
- 60 minutes: Joe Rogan joins as a Correspondent this year?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Will Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $53,000 in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour I live in Montreal for 60+ days in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 53% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand I live in Montreal for 60+ days in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- I live in Montreal for 60+ days in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment I live in Montreal for 60+ days in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I live in Toronto right now but I might move to Montreal in 2026.