Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOther 53.5%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard5 oct. 25, 18:48 UTC11 janv. 70, 18:36 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves "the named outcome" if, while still married, it appears that Taylor & Travis will be immortal (e.g. life expectancy increasing at a rate of more than one year per year, sustained for an extended period of time) and they credibly commit to never breaking up (e.g. by self-modification).
- Resolves "the named outcome" if the marriage breaks up and there is any hint of acrimony.
- (I will be fairly generous in what qualifies for this, since the public view will be heavily filtered.
- If there aren't public indications that they're still friendly, it's probably gone down in flames.
- As a point of reference, the Joe Alwyn breakup would qualify as going down in flames.)
- Resolves "the named outcome" upon credible reporting that they have split before getting married (regardless of whether they later get back together).
Marchés ouverts
Entertainment
POLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.0pt69.6%
- 940 - 950m-16.5pt26.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 319,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 98 k €
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+25.0pt67%
- Callum Turner-3.0pt21%
- Jack Barton-8.0pt20%
+27 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,8 M €
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-6.3pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.5pt9%
+21 résultats de plus
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 80 k €
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 130,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 45,3 k €
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 4 M €
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour How will Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce's marriage end? (alternate) ?
- Manifold Markets cote Other à 54% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand How will Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce's marriage end? (alternate) sera-t-il résolu ?
- How will Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce's marriage end? (alternate) doit être résolu le 11 janvier 2070.
- Comment How will Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce's marriage end? (alternate) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves "the named outcome" if, while still married, it appears that Taylor & Travis will be immortal (e.g. life expectancy increasing at a rate of more than one year per year, sustained for an extended period of time) and they credibly commit to never breaking up (e.g. by self-modification).