How will presidential historians rank Biden relative to other past presidents?
PolitiqueOne-OffÉchecsPolitique américaineÉlectionSport8mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
21-25 31.9%En tête parmi 10 options
21-25 31.9%Prévisionnistes
30
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète7 juil. 24, 17:15 UTC1 juil. 27, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which presidents will become more highly rated by presidential historians between 2021 and 2025?
Manifold MarketsWill all living current and past presidents attend Joe Biden's funeral?
Manifold MarketsBiden ranked below Carter in next C-SPAN Presidential Historians Survey
Manifold MarketsBiden ranked below W Bush in next C-SPAN Presidential Historians Survey
Manifold MarketsKimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Rank Debut?
PolymarketWhich coalition will form the next Swedish government?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves according to the first C-SPAN Presidential Historian Survey where Biden is ranked (I think this will be the year after he leaves office) https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2021/?page=overall
- If the Presidential Historian Survey is never released again, then resolves YES for Other and all other options resolve NO.
- The methodology in 2021 was: "a survey in which participants used a 1 ("not effective") to 10 ("very effective") scale to rate each president on 10 qualities of presidential leadership: Public Persuasion, Crisis Leadership, Economic Management, Moral Authority, International Relations, Administrative Skills, Relations with Congress, Vision/Setting an Agenda, Pursued Equal Justice for All and Performance Within the Context of the Times.
- Surveys are distributed to historians, professors and other professional observers of the presidency who are drawn from databases of C-SPAN programming, research in the field and suggestions from our academic advisers.
- Each cycle, we reach out to past participants and add new names to the list to maintain a well-rounded list of invited participants.
- This year, 142 completed the survey, up from 91 in 2017.
