Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle10+ 50%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
1
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
12 juil. 26, 22:4119 juil. 26, 3:59
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
10+50%
Tendance du volume
$20012 juil.2j de données13 juil.
Marchés Associés
Elon Musk # tweets July 7 - July 14, 2026?
422,4 k €200-219: 48%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Which company has best AI model end of July?
171,4 k €Anthropic: 95%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
41,6 k €December 31: 49%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Rain in Seattle in Jul 2026?
27 k €Above 2 inches: 9%
KALSHI
KALSHI
When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
16,3 k €Before October: 10%KALSHI
KALSHI
#1 searched person on Google in 2026
11,2 k €Donald Trump: 16%KALSHI
KALSHIActifs dans ces sujets
Actualités Associées
NVIDIA Explores RLVR for AI Agents with Nemotron 3 SuperBlockchain.News
X.ai Launches No-Code Voice Agent Builder for Grok VoiceBlockchain.NewsNVIDIA Expands U.S. AI Manufacturing with $500B VisionBlockchain.NewsGoogle Expands Gemini Spark to macOS, Adds New App IntegrationsBlockchain.News
Anthropic's Claude Sonnet 5 Closes In on Opus 4.8 at a Fraction of the PriceDecrypt
NVIDIA Adds Vulkan Descriptor Heaps Support, Boosting GPU PerformanceBlockchain.NewsRègles
How to sign up: go to the tournament page, hit Join, and enter your Manifold username — before July 18, 23:59 ET.
- Each "N+" answer resolves YES if the participant count on the tournament page is at least N when signups close July 18, and NO otherwise — each threshold resolves independently (e.g. 30 signups resolves 10+ and 25+ YES, 50+ and 100+ NO).
- Host reserves the right to exclude troll signups (spam accounts, obvious sockpuppets, signups made just to game this market) from the count.
- Note this market is self-referential: signing up moves its own answer.
- 🏆 This market is part of The Introductory Tournaments Tournament, the first-ever tournament on Manifold Tournaments — an unofficial site for running tournaments on top of Manifold markets.
- Rankings are by total profit across the tournament's markets, computed live on the tournament page.