Democrats gain Senate seats in 2026 midterm elections?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 20262mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 95.9%
Prévisionnistes
40
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 minutes
30 mars 25, 22:01 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Democrats gain 38+ seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 US midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsRepublican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
PolymarketRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
PolymarketRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? (Lower Brackets)
PolymarketWill there be over 215 Republican seats after the midterm elections in the House of Representatives?
Manifold MarketsWill 3 or more Democrats flip seats in the 2026 midterm elections by running on anti-AI sentiment?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Currently the Democrats hold 47 seats in the Senate (including the two independents who caucus with them, Sanders and King).
- This resolves YES if they GAIN seats (including any independents that caucus with them, or that a media consensus views as likely to caucus with them, or predominantly aligned with the democrat party and their views).
- If there are special elections or some sort of party flips of members between now and the election, this market will still require the democrats to gain seats during the midterms.
- That is to say, let's say one republican flips to being a democrat and there are then 48 dem seats in the senate, then they will have to have 49 seats after the midterm elections.
- If there are some sort of election-rigging claims, or the senate is disbanded, or the Trump admin stops democratic senators from being seated, or some other hijinxes ensue, I will use my judgement to ensure a fair resolution.
- Thus, I will not bet in this market.
