Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 91.7%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète27 déc. 25, 00:08 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
China to announce cap on zinc by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill CBMM trailing 12-month FeNb output exceed 155 kt as of September 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill CBMM trailing 12-month FeNb output exceed 175 kt as of September 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill CBMM trailing 12-month FeNb output exceed 110 kt as of September 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill nuclear energy generate more than 67,000 thousand megawatt-hours of electricity in the US during August 2026? (Power plants) (Reactors) (Grid output) (Clean power)?
ForecastExWill nuclear energy generate more than 68,000 thousand megawatt-hours of electricity in the US during August 2026? (Power plants) (Reactors) (Grid output) (Clean power)?
ForecastExRègles
Resolution Criteria:
- This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, the Chinese government (e.g., NDRC, MIIT, State Council, or other central authority) officially announces or implements a hard national ceiling on refined lead smelting/refining capacity or annual production output.
- This must be modeled after the aluminum sector's 45 million tonne annual capacity cap (introduced in 2017), meaning:
- An explicit numerical limit (e.g., X million tonnes per year) on total national capacity or output.
- Enforced via strict controls like "capacity replacement" rules (new capacity only if equal/old capacity is retired), bans on net new additions, or direct production quotas.
- YES examples:
