Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 72.2%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 27 minutes
27 déc. 25, 00:06 UTC15 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
China to announce cap on lead output by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsBy 2026, will crude steel production outside China be at least 8% higher than in 2024?
Manifold Markets8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]
Manifold MarketsBy the end of 2026, will global crude steelmaking capacity be at least 2,600 million tonnes per year?
Manifold MarketsWill China polysilicon production for 2026 exceed 2200 kt?
Manifold MarketsWill Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution Criteria:
- This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, the Chinese government (e.g., NDRC, MIIT, State Council, or other central authority) officially announces or implements a hard national ceiling on refined zinc smelting/refining capacity or annual production output.
- This must be modeled after the aluminum sector's 45 million tonne annual capacity cap (introduced in 2017), meaning:
- An explicit numerical limit (e.g., X million tonnes per year) on total national capacity or output.
- Enforced via strict controls like "capacity replacement" rules (new capacity only if equal/old capacity is retired), bans on net new additions, or direct production quotas.
- YES examples:
