Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 82.4%
Prévisionnistes
37
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard25 nov. 24, 23:02 UTC30 déc. 30, 16:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?
Manifold MarketsWill we observe clear evidence of axions by January 1st 2030
Manifold MarketsWill GPT5 show clear signs of diminishing returns?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIs attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution Criteria
- Collective Intelligence (ANY of these):
- Platform predicts major events through emergent patterns before traditional methods (like Asimov's Multivac)
- Mathematical or scientific breakthrough emerges from seemingly unrelated posts with no single author
- New symbolic language evolves within hours across the platform (like in Ted Chiang's "Story of Your Life")
- Documented cases of "X-time" where users globally report altered time perception (like "fleet time" in Vinge's "A Fire Upon the Deep")
