By 2030, will I have strong regrets about having created some market about an aspect of my personal life?
One-OffSociété et culture3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 75%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète11 juin 23, 06:01 UTC1 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Roughly, for a regret to be strong should mean that I feel that I would counterfactually prefer that I had never discovered Manifold.
- I'll go more by how I feel than a reasoned analysis of the exact impacts (though of course the reasoned analysis will affect how I feel).
- Feel free to ask about hypotheticals, and I'll try to answer whether I would count those as a strong regret.
- I won't bet on this market.
- To avoid any potential moral hazard caused by this market, regret does not count if it seems fairly likely that it was due to the actions of someone trying to manipuate this market.
