By 2028, which country other than USA/China will be most important to AI?

ChinaOne-Off1a

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibré

Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes

Données au 20 juil. 2026, 14:20 UTC · politique pm-quality-2

Prévision communautaire actuelle

UK 33.3%+2.4%

En tête parmi 11 options

Prévisionnistes

192

Type de question

multiple choice

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 5 jours

Obsolète

24 nov. 23, 14:041 janv. 28, 4:59

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier

Résultat choisi

UK33%

Mise (USDT)

Règles

Note that this question DOES NOT include importance via physical chip manufacturing and supply chain, which is why Taiwan and The Netherlands are not listed.

To avoid confusion and get at the question being asked, that is explicitly excluded.
If unclear, will resolve via best available consensus mechanism.
Will pick one winner even if unclear.
Will add additional countries upon reasonable request.
Motivation: Claim in Economist that UAE might be third most important (https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1727991912567583052)

Tendance du volume

$486

19 juil.2j de données20 juil.

Marchés Associés

Valorant: Nova Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Seed Deciders

43,8 k €

1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5: 64%

POLYMARKET

Best Chinese AI Company end of July?

34,7 k €

Alibaba: 76%

POLYMARKET

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

23,6 k €

Oui: 4%

POLYMARKET

Chengdu Rongcheng vs Beijing Guoan

15,6 k €

Chengdu Rongcheng: 49%

KALSHI

Bilibili Gaming vs. Nova Esports

13,7 k €

Nova Esports: 52%

KALSHI

Wolves Esports vs. FunPlus Phoenix

7 k €

FunPlus Phoenix: 57%

KALSHI

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$64,384.90+0.65%

EthereumETH$1,880.11+1.35%

SolanaSOL$74.89+1.47%

XRPXRP$1.10+0.96%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0735+5.87%

BNBBNB$571.57+1.16%

Actualités Associées

China completes first digital yuan payment to SingaporeCrypto News

Trump’s CLARITY push is now about beating ChinaCrypto News

Polymarket prices China–Japan clash at 7.5% after ICC dispute spotlights TokyoBlockchain.News

Polymarket Taiwan 2026 invasion Yes odds drop to 3.75% on $38.6M volumeBlockchain.News

DeepSeek plots $71B IPO to challenge OpenAI in global AI raceCrypto News

Chinese Prosecutors Float Treating Crypto Mixer, Privacy Coin Use as Sign of Money LaunderingDecrypt

Règles

Note that this question DOES NOT include importance via physical chip manufacturing and supply chain, which is why Taiwan and The Netherlands are not listed.

To avoid confusion and get at the question being asked, that is explicitly excluded.
If unclear, will resolve via best available consensus mechanism.
Will pick one winner even if unclear.
Will add additional countries upon reasonable request.
Motivation: Claim in Economist that UAE might be third most important (https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1727991912567583052)

By 2028, which country other than USA/China will be most important to AI?

ChinaOne-Off1a

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibré

Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes

Données au 20 juil. 2026, 14:20 UTC · politique pm-quality-2

Prévision communautaire actuelle

UK 33.3%+2.4%

En tête parmi 11 options

Prévisionnistes

192

Type de question

multiple choice

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 5 jours

Obsolète

24 nov. 23, 14:041 janv. 28, 4:59

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier

Résultat choisi

UK33%

Mise (USDT)

Règles

Note that this question DOES NOT include importance via physical chip manufacturing and supply chain, which is why Taiwan and The Netherlands are not listed.

To avoid confusion and get at the question being asked, that is explicitly excluded.
If unclear, will resolve via best available consensus mechanism.
Will pick one winner even if unclear.
Will add additional countries upon reasonable request.
Motivation: Claim in Economist that UAE might be third most important (https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1727991912567583052)

Tendance du volume

$486

19 juil.2j de données20 juil.

Marchés Associés

Valorant: Nova Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Seed Deciders

43,8 k €

1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5: 64%

POLYMARKET

Best Chinese AI Company end of July?

34,7 k €

Alibaba: 76%

POLYMARKET

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

23,6 k €

Oui: 4%

POLYMARKET

Chengdu Rongcheng vs Beijing Guoan

15,6 k €

Chengdu Rongcheng: 49%

KALSHI

Bilibili Gaming vs. Nova Esports

13,7 k €

Nova Esports: 52%

KALSHI

Wolves Esports vs. FunPlus Phoenix

7 k €

FunPlus Phoenix: 57%

KALSHI

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$64,384.90+0.65%

EthereumETH$1,880.11+1.35%

SolanaSOL$74.89+1.47%

XRPXRP$1.10+0.96%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0735+5.87%

BNBBNB$571.57+1.16%

Actualités Associées

China completes first digital yuan payment to SingaporeCrypto News

Trump’s CLARITY push is now about beating ChinaCrypto News

Polymarket prices China–Japan clash at 7.5% after ICC dispute spotlights TokyoBlockchain.News

Polymarket Taiwan 2026 invasion Yes odds drop to 3.75% on $38.6M volumeBlockchain.News

DeepSeek plots $71B IPO to challenge OpenAI in global AI raceCrypto News

Chinese Prosecutors Float Treating Crypto Mixer, Privacy Coin Use as Sign of Money LaunderingDecrypt

Règles

Note that this question DOES NOT include importance via physical chip manufacturing and supply chain, which is why Taiwan and The Netherlands are not listed.

To avoid confusion and get at the question being asked, that is explicitly excluded.
If unclear, will resolve via best available consensus mechanism.
Will pick one winner even if unclear.
Will add additional countries upon reasonable request.
Motivation: Claim in Economist that UAE might be third most important (https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1727991912567583052)