Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 58.7%
Prévisionnistes
36
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète27 août 23, 05:27 UTC2 janv. 31, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a bridge across the Strait of Messina between mainland Italy and Sicily have started construction by 2030?
Manifold MarketsBridge built connecting the main islands of New Zealand through 2040
Manifold MarketsRoad bridge to Sicily open by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Maryland award the Key Bridge main span contract by summer 2027?
KalshiLargest Company end of September?
Polymarket$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketRègles
At least some work must have started and project must be funded and on track
- Connecting each sides mainland, not islands
- (Although stopovers or steps at islands are fine)
- You'll be able to travel above water not flying between the countries
- Update 2025-03-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Clarification:
- The project must have no remaining required unfunded or unplanned steps at the time of resolution.
Marchés ouverts
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+5.5pt96%
- $25M+8.5pt94%
- $50M+13.0pt87%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 351,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 351,4 k €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+6.0pt52%
- 65-89+24.5pt45.1%
- 90-114-2.5pt2.9%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA+1.0pt78.4%
- Apple+0.6pt13.7%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-199-1.0pt18.2%
- 200-21918.2%
- 160-179+1.0pt14.1%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIWashington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 80,000 jobs98%
- Above 81,000 jobs95%
- Above 82,000 jobs+3.0pt92%
+10 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,7 k €
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.3pt98%
- Apple-0.3pt2%
- Alphabet0%
+6 résultats de plus
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Illinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- 3rd Largest Company end of September?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Bridge built connecting mainland Italy to Sicily through 2030 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 59% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Bridge built connecting mainland Italy to Sicily through 2030 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Bridge built connecting mainland Italy to Sicily through 2030 doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2031.
- Comment Bridge built connecting mainland Italy to Sicily through 2030 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : At least some work must have started and project must be funded and on track