Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 07:45 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 56%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète14 oct. 25, 19:35 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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MyriadWill the AI-generated Bitcoin song "Chain of Infinite" by Lunr Reverb go viral and reach 1,000,000 streams before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a blockchain‑ (or similar‑technology‑) based decentralized marketplace for buying and selling compute resources achieves “scaled usage” in any 30‑consecutive‑day window ending before January 1, 2031, by meeting at least 3 of the following 5 criteria:
- Money (GMV): Buyer‑to‑provider payments settled by the marketplace’s smart contracts total ≥ $25,000,000 in that 30‑day window (USD‑equivalent at time of settlement).
- Only payments tied to completed/active compute jobs count; pure token swaps, grants, staking rewards, or emissions do not count.
- Delivered compute (FLOP·s, pick one precision class): Aggregate delivered compute (summed across all jobs in the window) is ≥ 1,000 ZFLOP·s at FP16/BF16, or ≥ 2,000 ZFLOP·s at FP8.
- How to measure: For each job, use the vendor‑published peak TFLOP/s for the GPU model at the relevant precision class × job duration (seconds) × the job’s reported average utilization (if available; otherwise assume 100% only if the network provides no lower utilization metric).
- Sum across jobs.
