Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 94.1%
Prévisionnistes
110
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète10 déc. 25, 03:28 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Canada passes under-16 social media ban in 2026?
PolymarketUS bans social media for children in 2026?
KalshiWhich Twitter-like social media platform will be most popular at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AI impersonation on social media cause a minimum of $50M+ in reported US corporate losses in 2026?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the Wikipedia article "X (social media platform)" no longer redirect to "Twitter" on December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves YES iff the social media ban for under 16 year olds in Australia implemented in December 2025 is no longer law at any point from January 1st to December 31st 2026 according to consensus of credible reporting.
- Update 2025-12-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional resolution criteria:
- Changes to the list of banned sites will not count as YES unless only one or fewer sites remain restricted (currently ten sites are restricted)
- Decreases to the age limit count as YES only if reduced by at least two years
- If the law is rendered constitutionally invalid by a successful High Court challenge, this counts as YES
- Changes must take legal effect at any point in 2026 for YES, not merely announced
