At any point before February 1, 2045, will there be a major third party in US politics? [read desc]
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaine18aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 64%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète23 août 24, 19:10 UTC2 févr. 45, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves YES when, at any point prior to market close, any one political party besides the Republican Party or Democratic Party simultaneously has ≥25 points from the following sources:
- State governor - worth 8 points
- US Senator - worth 8 points
- US House rep - worth 3 points
- POTUS - worth 25 points
- For example, if the Green Party held 2 US Senate seats and 3 US House seats at the same time (8 + 8 + 3 + 3 + 3 = 25), this market would resolve YES.
