Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleGambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB 66%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète14 juil. 25, 14:29 UTC15 avr. 27, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
KalshiCap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?
PolymarketSports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?
PolymarketWill Colorado's AI rules take effect before February 2027?
KalshiReal Madrid 26-27 Season Prop Bets
Manifold MarketsTomodachi Life: Living the Dream prop bets [Add Answers!]
Manifold MarketsRègles
Inspired by this Money Stuff column: One sentence of the 940-page [‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ passed last week] says gamblers can deduct only 90 percent of their annual losses, instead of 100 percent, which has been the norm.
- This has created a funny situation where sports predicting on markets like Kalshi is taxed as capital gains but sports betting on a traditional book like draftkings gets unfavorable treatment around deducting losses.
- All questions resolve on tax day 2027 unless otherwise stated.
- I'm open to moving the resolution date if something legal development is likely to get decided soon after.
- I'm interested in the short term impacts not the long term, so anything pending would have to apply to the 2026 tax year.
- If legal action takes place before resolution, I'll leave these open for some time to account for appeals.
Marchés ouverts
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7 k €
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-14.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-15.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-5.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.1%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 96,6 k €
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour 2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets ?
- Manifold Markets cote Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB à 66% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand 2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets sera-t-il résolu ?
- 2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets doit être résolu le 15 avril 2027.
- Comment 2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Inspired by this Money Stuff column: One sentence of the 940-page [‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ passed last week] says gamblers can deduct only 90 percent of their annual losses, instead of 100 percent, which has been the norm.