🇧🇷 Will Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff be decided by less than 3 percentage points?
PolitiqueOne-OffÉlectionAmérique latine17jManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 50.8%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
5 oct. 26, 20:15 UTC24 oct. 26, 17:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
This market resolves YES if the absolute difference between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s and Flávio Bolsonaro’s shares of valid votes in the second round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election is less than 3.00 percentage points.
- For example, a 51.4%–48.6% result represents a 2.8-point margin and resolves YES.
- A 51.5%–48.5% result represents exactly 3.0 points and resolves NO.
- Resolution will use the final official valid-vote percentages published by Brazil’s Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE).
- Blank and invalid ballots are excluded.
- If the October 25 runoff is postponed, the market remains unresolved until the rescheduled vote occurs.