How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?
2.0 pts (24h)One-OffPolitiqueUS PoliticsÉlection3mo
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesGrossièrement calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle2 67%-1.0ptEn tête parmi 4 options
Qualite du marche
62 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
1,3 k €
Liquidité
177,6 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
21.0% / 26.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 22 minutes
23 janv. 26, 21:003 nov. 26, 15:00
Tendances
0%
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
324%
Comparer les plateformes· 3
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiCette pageMeilleur global | Moyenne | 24% | 0pt | 1,3 k € | 177,6 k € | il y a 22 minutes | |
 Polymarket80% de correspondance · vérifié | Faible | 79% | +55pt | 0 € | 3,4 k € | il y a 22 minutes | Ouvrir → |
Également disponible sur Polymarket
How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
6.7 pts
-0.3pt79%
+2.6pt24%
+6.7pt20%
+3 résultats de plus
31 • Faible qualitéSpread largeLiquidité moyenne
Volume total59,7 k €
Volume 24h0 €
POLYMARKETRègles
If the number of Republican Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
- To be included, candidates must:
- Be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; Be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; Lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
- In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
- For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
- In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Tendance du volume
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If the number of Republican Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
- To be included, candidates must:
- Be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; Be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; Lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
- In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
- For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
- In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.