KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Likud 98%En tête parmi 22 options
Qualité du marché
50 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
1,3 k €
Liquidité
3,6 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
6.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
28 août 26, 22:00 UTC27 oct. 27, 14:00 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
0%
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0%
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0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu run for the Israeli Knesset next election?
Manifold MarketsWill former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennet be a member of the 26th knesset?
Manifold MarketsArab Party alliances in the next Knesset elections?
Manifold MarketsVote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?
PolymarketVote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRègles
If the named outcome has won at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Central Elections Committee
- A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either: The time for legal challenges has expired Challenges have been resolved The member has taken their seat
- Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes.
- The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged.
- If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price.
- Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which lists will win a Knesset seat? ?
- Kalshi cote Likud à 98% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which lists will win a Knesset seat? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which lists will win a Knesset seat? doit être résolu le 27 octobre 2027.
- Comment Which lists will win a Knesset seat? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the named outcome has won at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.