KalshiFerméVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréCe marché s'est résolu: At least 40% (98%)
Résolu: 9 oct. 2026, 05:09
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 9 oct. 2026, 05:00 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Chronologie des Probabilités
At least 45%99%
At least 40%64%
At least 45%Perdu
At least 40%Gagné
At least 30%Perdu
At least 35%Perdu
At least 55%Perdu
At least 50%Perdu
At least 20%Perdu
At least 65%Perdu
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If the Conservatives get ≥100 seats in the next general election, will the PM at the end of 2027 be Labour?
Manifold MarketsIf this person is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK election after 2024, will the PM be Labour?
Manifold MarketsNZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
PolymarketWill Trump say he “forgives” the UK Labour Party, Keir Starmer or in any reference to them?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Règles archivées au niveau de l'événement. Les conditions exactes de chaque résultat ne sont plus disponibles.
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Labour Party in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election is 20% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:London Borough of Camden
- The percentage is (votes received by the party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded.
- Except as provided in the Fully-Conducted Elections provision, use certified/official results; qualifying unofficial results may be used only under that provision.
- Write-in votes in the result are included.
- Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from numerator and denominator.
- If multiple rounds occur, use the specified round or first round if none is specified.