Colombian presidential election first round winner?

74.4% (24h)Politique

KalshiFerméVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de frais

Ce marché s'est résolu: Abelardo de la Espriella (96%)

Résolu: 1 juin 2026, 13:18

Résultat Gagnant

Abelardo de la Espriella

À 7 jours

—

À 24 heures

24%

Surprise

Probabilité implicite actuelle

Abelardo de la Espriella 96%+74.4%

En tête parmi 5 options

Qualite du marche

79 / 100

Haute qualité

Volume 24h

3,1 k €

Liquidité

4 k €

Liquidité moyenne

Achat / Vente

96.3% / 98.7%

Spread

2.5%

Spread serré

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 12 jours

Obsolète

5 mars 26, 15:0031 mai 27, 14:00

Chronologie des Probabilités

Abelardo de la Espriella96%

Iván Cepeda Castro61%

Résultat24hProbabilité

Abelardo de la Espriella

+74.4%

96%

Iván Cepeda Castro

-76.3%

Paloma Valencia

Sergio Fajardo

Daniel Quintero

Ce marché est clôturé. Le trading fictif n'est disponible que sur les marchés ouverts.

Règles

If Iván Cepeda Castro wins the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.

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Règles

If Iván Cepeda Castro wins the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.

Colombian presidential election first round winner?

74.4% (24h)Politique

KalshiFerméVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de frais

Ce marché s'est résolu: Abelardo de la Espriella (96%)

Résolu: 1 juin 2026, 13:18

Résultat Gagnant

Abelardo de la Espriella

À 7 jours

—

À 24 heures

24%

Surprise

Probabilité implicite actuelle

Abelardo de la Espriella 96%+74.4%

En tête parmi 5 options

Qualite du marche

79 / 100

Haute qualité

Volume 24h

3,1 k €

Liquidité

4 k €

Liquidité moyenne

Achat / Vente

96.3% / 98.7%

Spread

2.5%

Spread serré

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 12 jours

Obsolète

5 mars 26, 15:0031 mai 27, 14:00

Chronologie des Probabilités

Abelardo de la Espriella96%

Iván Cepeda Castro61%

Résultat24hProbabilité

Abelardo de la Espriella

+74.4%

96%

Iván Cepeda Castro

-76.3%

Paloma Valencia

Sergio Fajardo

Daniel Quintero

Ce marché est clôturé. Le trading fictif n'est disponible que sur les marchés ouverts.

Règles

If Iván Cepeda Castro wins the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.

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924,8 k €

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847,8 k €

Gavin Newsom: 23%

POLYMARKET

Massachusetts Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026?

15,1 k €

Democratic Party: 96.6%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

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9,2 k €

Democratic Party: 92.1%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Starmer out before July?

9,1 k €

Oui: 17.2%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$64,159.92+1.22%

SolanaSOL$67.95+1.78%

EthereumETH$1,679.60+0.88%

AvalancheAVAX$6.68+1.22%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0883+1.50%

Actualités Associées

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Règles

If Iván Cepeda Castro wins the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.