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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. Politique
  3. Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?
Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?

Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?

14.8% (24h)Politique
KalshiKalshiFerméVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de frais

Ce marché s'est résolu: No (100%)

Résolu: 1 juin 2026, 13:17

Résultat Gagnant

No

À 7 jours

—

À 24 heures

89%

Consensus
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Oui
Oui 0%-14.8%
Qualite du marche

36 / 100

Faible qualité
Volume 24h

608,6 €

Liquidité

727,5 €

Faible liquidité
Achat / Vente

0.2% / 0.7%

Spread

250.0%

Spread large
Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 11 jours

Obsolète
5 mars 26, 15:0031 mai 27, 14:00

Chronologie des Probabilités

Yes0%
No100%
0%25%50%75%100%30 mai31 mai1 juin
Résultat24hProbabilité
Oui
Oui
-14.8%
0%
Non
Non
100%

Ce marché est clôturé. Le trading fictif n'est disponible que sur les marchés ouverts.

Règles

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Colombian presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round.
  • In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.
  • In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes.
  • Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies.
  • The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds.

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Règles

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Colombian presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round.
  • In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.
  • In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes.
  • Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies.
  • The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds.