Brazil presidential runoff: who will win the vote abroad?
13.0 pts (24h)PolitiqueOne-OffÉlectionAmérique latine1a
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 52.6%-13.0ptAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 52.6%-13.0ptQualité du marché
67 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
1,3 k €
Intérêt ouvert
2,6 k €
Intérêt ouvert moyenAchat / Vente
50.0% / 51.0%
Écart
1.0 pt
Spread serréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 minutes
5 oct. 26, 21:00 UTC25 oct. 27, 14:00 UTC
Tendances
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: which states will Flávio Bolsonaro win?
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent
Kalshi🇧🇷 Will Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff be decided by less than 3 percentage points?
Manifold MarketsBrazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad
PolymarketRègles
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in 1st place in the Exterior zone (Brazilian voters abroad) in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
- Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: Rank is based on runoff vote totals only In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO. The Exterior zone is the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) results unit for votes cast by Brazilian voters outside Brazil; ranking uses its runoff totals, regardless of the national result.
Règles de chaque résultat
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in 1st place in the Exterior zone (Brazilian voters abroad) in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Flávio Bolsonaro
- If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 1st place in the Exterior zone (Brazilian voters abroad) in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.