KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Lula da Silva, ≥1% 11%En tête parmi 5 options
Lula da Silva, ≥1% 11%Qualité du marché
57 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
1,1 k €
Intérêt ouvert
1,1 k €
Intérêt ouvert faibleÉcart
1.0 pt
Spread serréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
5 oct. 26, 21:00 UTC25 oct. 27, 14:00 UTC
Tendances
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Brazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: which countries will Flávio Bolsonaro win?
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: margin of victory
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: which states will Flávio Bolsonaro win?
Kalshi🇧🇷 Will Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff be decided by less than 3 percentage points?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
- The margin of victory is the share of valid votes (excluding blank and null votes) received by Lula da Silva minus the share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses. If Lula da Silva wins, the margin will be positive; if Lula da Silva loses, the margin will be negative; if Lula da Silva ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Lula da Silva runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Règles de chaque résultat
- Lula da Silva, ≥1%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lula da Silva, ≥3%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lula da Silva, ≥5%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lula da Silva, ≥7%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 7%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lula da Silva, ≥9%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 9%, then the market resolves to Yes.
