Probabilité implicite actuelle
CDU 32%En tête parmi 7 options
Qualite du marche
24 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
0 €
Liquidité
4,8 €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
29.0% / 35.0%
Spread
20.7%
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
17 mai 26, 14:0020 sept. 27, 14:00
Tendances
Résultat choisi
CDU32%
Également disponible sur Polymarket
Berlin State Election Winner
1.0%3mo
+1.0%30%
+1.0%22%
+0.1%22%
+21 résultats de plus
80 • Haute qualitéSpread modéréLiquidité élevéeAmbiguïté élevée
Volume total2,3 M €
Volume 24h4,2 k €
POLYMARKETRègles
If CDU wins the 2026 Berlin state election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
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If CDU wins the 2026 Berlin state election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.